My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight

Why do I make this prediction now?  Simple, I am watching Hardball.  The roundtable is talking about an Obama candidacy, Eugene Robinson is smiling like a cat that just swallowed a bird.  Chris is basically acting as though he as won and Dee Dee Myers is doing nothing to try and temper that.

Matthews is seeing the exit polling.  We are not.  Not yet.

I could be wrong.  As a Clinton supporter I hope I am.  But my gut says Obama rolled tonight and my guess is he takes New Jersey (Matthews said he would pay particular interest in NJ).



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Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

MSNBC is the official channel of Obama and have been for a long time. Matthews HATES Hillary and what exactly do you expect from Robinson???


by rossinatl on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:57:15 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Well then, if Obama would do badly today they wouldn't be in such good spirits probably.

But then again, exit polls are terrible, so anything could happen.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Ernst on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (2.00 / 2)

Good expectations setting, but the next time that Matthews knows anything will be the first time.  That, at least, is something all Democrats should be able to agree on.


by HSTruman on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:59:24 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

the next time that Matthews knows anything will be the first time.

I absolutely love that line.


No Way. No How. No McCain.
by Denny Crane on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:12:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Based on the early exits I'd say read Matthews and his crew like a book.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:35:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (2.00 / 1)

That's depressing news.  God, I hate those people.  I want Hillary to win to give them a much-deserved smack in the face.


by reasonwarrior on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 05:59:54 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Remember that the polls are far from closed to.


by ejintx on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:00:53 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

CNN is showing exit polls and their attitude over there is far different. Obama's people are seeking to lower expectations. I do not look to that panel, which I was also watching, as signifying anything.


by americanincanada on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:03:10 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

On the Democratic side, early indications suggest it could be a long night. Primary outcomes often turn on those people who made their decisions within the last three days before the vote. According to the exit polls, Obama and Clinton are essentially splitting those voters, with 47 percent going for Obama and 46 percent for Clinton.

So no great last minute surge to Obama which should be good news in CA at least.


by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Not to me.


by MNPundit on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:45:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

CNN showed some exit polls for people who decided in the last three days. It was even.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:05:05 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Well, that should be pretty good news for Clinton, I would have thought.


by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:10:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Everything is too close to call. Matthews is such a tool.. I hate him as much as I hate Fox News right now. Be objective. Jeez.


by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:05:21 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

The networks do not get to see the exit polling until 5pm.

Have a look at the pollster.com blog.


by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:05:37 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Sorry, I mean to say until the polls close.


by kristoph on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:09:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My prediction (none / 0)

Hillary wins big but not big enough.


by puma on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:09:30 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

MSNBC exit poll suggests Obama did well..

Interesting best commander of chief
Clinton 50 Obama 35

Can Unite Country
Obama 54 Clinton 37

Bring about change was important for 53% of voters, and Obama was rated as getting 3/4 of that vote.


by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:12:09 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

I've done the math: convention chaos.


I proudly support Barack Obama for President!
by Zeitgeist9000 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:23:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

the Iowa and NH exit polls were off (none / 0)

so let's wait for the results before jumping to any conclusions.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:13:49 PM EST

Re: the Iowa and NH exit polls were off (none / 0)

The exit polls for CNN was very accurate for NH.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

MSNBC's exit polls basically state what we have already heard from the early primary states. Nothing really substantive. We won't get anythng real until the polls start closing in an hour.


by americanincanada on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:14:24 PM EST

i think he was joking (none / 0)

this will be close after tomorrow and will go all the way to Texas. No matter what the media narrative is, Hillary will not drop out. And Obama has too much money to quit.


by highgrade on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:19:30 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

It won't be long now, until we start to see the actual results. I can't really see the need for predictions at this point. Let the voters speak.
Nobody's right if everybody's wrong --Stephen Stills "For What It's Worth"
by vj on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:23:04 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Matthews actually looked more concerned to me at the outset of the show.

But if anyone watched he and Olbermann during the New Hampshire returns, they'll remember Matthews was right there at poll-closing time with the Chesire grin on his face saying they expected to make an early call on the Democratic side (i.e. calling it for Obama).

We all know how that turned out.  

Ignore them.  Let the numbers tell the story.  

And for God's sake, MSNBC is sssssssssoooooooo in the Obama-rah rah crowd, it's breathtaking.  With the exception of Dan Abrams, who will inject fairness, and Pat Buchanan, of all people, it's Obama all the way.  It's really unbelievable that a network could not only be so biased, but so biased TOWARD ONE CANDIDATE!


by DaTruth on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:28:47 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Looking at those early exits, you mat be right.


Restore America's Strength.
by RJEvans on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:31:05 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

George, if Obama has a very good night tonight, he'll be the nominee. The tidal wave will just continue to rise and rise, voices for change will grow louder and louder and he'll prevail.

Hillary needs to stop his surge tonight. If not, she's facing a tsunami.


by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:45:08 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

It is incredibly sickening to see how much power MSM has in deciding the nominee of my party. If Hillary does not win BIG tonight, MSM will be all over her demanding her concession. The worst primary ever.


by praxis1 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:51:50 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

praxis, its the way it works. Lot of low information voters out there.


by falcon4e on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:54:01 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

And it doesn't concern you?


by praxis1 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:08:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

I predict Obama wins, but not by a grand sweep.  In other words, we are in this until August.

I am in Hillary's camp but I've come across Obama campaigners.  There are many of them and they are aggressive.  He has sooo many grass roots out to help him.  

Hillary's only hope (1) absentee votes, (2) superdelegates, and (3) MI and FL.

Let's cross our fingers.


by findthesource on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:06:28 PM EST

i swear the hillary supporters on here (none / 0)

must be manic. Most of the polls are still open, a couple of exit polls and a state that Obama was expected to carry handily, and all of a sudden it's doom and gloom??


by highgrade on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:10:12 PM EST

Re: i swear the hillary supporters on here (2.00 / 1)

Many of us watch TV, we're not immune to the hype... And, you know, hope isn't our thing.


by souvarine on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:14:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just trying to guage where we are at this time (none / 0)

If not for the fun of doing that I'd simply wait to read about it in the papers.


by dpANDREWS on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:27:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Actually, if Obama is splitting the folks who decided in the last three days, that IS a surge, considering how far behind he was a few weeks ago.


by mainelib on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:18:10 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Well, watching CNN they are downplaying Obama's chances and saying that if he wins GA, IL and a couple of others it will be a good night for him.


by RDemocrat on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:22:52 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

drudge report has good news for once fellow liberals.

He's going to win so many states tonight.


by Djneedle83 on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 07:57:24 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Front runners don't insist on four debates in four weeks.  Front runner don't ask for debates, period. I thought that was telling, indicating what might come.


by aiko on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 08:00:19 PM EST

Re: My Prediction: Obama wins BIG tonight (none / 0)

Whatever dude. HRC is gonna win NJ by double-digits, and then some.


by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:26:56 PM EST

My two cents... (none / 0)

Hillary wins the most states and popular votes. Obama comes out with as many, or almost as many delegates and is therefore will be declared the real winner.


Hillary Clinton is not a monster,....as far as I know.. We are all Hussein JUNIOR.. ///.. FEINGOLD/BOXER 2016
by Its Like Herding Cats on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 09:39:02 PM EST

WRONG!!! (none / 0)

Hillary is winning big!  The MSM wants Obama, and they are shameless in their bias, but Hillary is a scrappy fighter, isn't she?  


by nascardem on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:16:21 PM EST

She's winning big? (none / 0)

She lost Connecticut and Delaware - so far the only surprises of the night.


by Drummond on Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They were swayed by the early exit poll data (none / 0)

If you watched between 5 and 7 they were almost giddy.  Listen to their words ... they were talking about what the Obama candidacy was going to be like.  

Ooops.

Not so fast.


by dpANDREWS on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 08:50:27 AM EST


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